State of the Market, November 3rd 2022

Important Note from Lazy: We have a new exciting web partner in the works. They will help us publish out financial news content and commentary, likely on that site and with that roll out and relationship we will have some new exciting Defi content and opportunities for everyone to take part in. Stay tuned for more information, but for now, enjoy the Lazy Trader’s Market Report. 07:30 AM EST

Market Overview

Prior to the market open equity futures are down. As worldwide markets reacted to the Federal Chairman’s announcement of a rate hike, the opening of American markets should be interesting. The combination of earnings season and Q4 being the traditional time of year when companies will report if their calendar year was a successful one has roiled markets.

As we see that there is confusion across the board. The reactions will continue to be mixed. It remains fun to watch the markets and the commentary from the “experts” as there is a lack of consesus.

Lazy’s Mantra: “The market is always right, but the experts are always wrong.”

Maybe it’s worth considering, instead of listening to experts, notice that the experts are in disagreement because they are experts in very focused areas. If one was to watch Bloomberg 24 hours they would certainly not understand what markets are doing, what the sentiment might be, the lack of consensus is driven instead by one major thing that the retail investor will miss: Strategy.

Lazy’s Mantra: Define your strategy and stick to it - if the experts say your strategy is wrong, consider that they are experts in a very narrow field and that they likely disagree with your methodology. Seek out experts in your strategy - if you read or hear that they don’t understand your strategy, it’s time to move on and find another “expert”.

Lazy Trader’s Market Quick Take

Quick Take: We’re fucked.

Updates

Currency Exchange Rates

Regarding the Fed Funds Rate:

  • The new terminal rate from the Federal Reserve is going to be 5 to 8%. (Overheard on Bloomberg TV at 7:39 AM EST - frequently said over the last 12+ hours in the financial news)

Commodities & Equities

  • Pre-Open @ 7:42 AM EST: Futures down 8/10th of a percent (flat-ish).

Bonds & Fixed Income

Crypto

Conclusion & Confusion

Post-Close Market Reactions


Backmatter

Meta

LazyNotes:

This article is a #Live note and should be considered a living document, thus will be updated over the course of the day.

About the Author

Lazy is both lazy and crazy, but he is committed to helping you live a lazy life. Follow him here to learn how you too can be “successful” despite the drive to do nothing at all (including updating this website).